Posted in2024 election City Club Donald Trump

Political scientist explains why Trump won at City Club talk

After a national election, I look forward to Ed Dover explaining the results at a Salem City Club presentation. Dover is a retired political science professor at Western Oregon University. Dover's talk last Friday was his 13th City Club appearance. Dover began by saying that asking the right questions is key to understanding election results. Adapting the opening song from Hamilton, he said, how could a liar, conman, narcissist, sex with a porn star candidate become president for the second time? Three factors: (1) Entrenched partisanship, (2) Retrospective voting, (3) Democratic constituencies.  Entrenched partisanship. Other countries have more variation in…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

My tips about preserving sanity in the runup to presidential election

It takes one to know one, goes the familiar saying. Applying that to the current political situation, I know  the stress lots of people are under right now, because I'm feeling really stressed myself.  Today I mentioned in my Tai Chi class that I was going to try to use the Tai Chi principle of relaxed softness on November 5, election day, because I'm going to need all the help I can get in staying calm as the votes are counted and announced. That led to an interesting mid-class discussion among the half dozen or so students in attendance. It…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Trump campaign is self-destructing. Great news for Harris.

Like lots of Democrats, I worry incessantly about how well the Harris campaign is doing. Even though the presidential race is essentially a toss-up, us Democrats fret that Harris isn't doing better, while Trump supporters look at the same toss-up and think, "We're going to win for sure." But today I'm feeling a lot more optimistic.  Right on schedule, with just over a week to go before the election, the Trump campaign is self-destructing in plain view of voters. The clearest sign of this is the disastrous Trump rally in Madison Square Garden Sunday night.  Trump and other speakers were…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

My prediction is that Kamala Harris will be a great president

Last night I watched the CNN town hall featuring Kamala Harris and a group of undecided Pennsylvania voters. No Donald Trump, because he was afraid of an invitation to debate Harris on CNN that she accepted, and when CNN offered Trump his own town hall, he chickened out of that also. So much for the fake-macho Republican presidential candidate that world leaders supposedly fear. Trump doesn't even have the courage to go head-to-head with Harris again, undoubtedly because she kicked his ass badly in their previous debate. Watching Harris answer questions from the undecided voters, occasionally side-stepping a pointed question…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump National politics

Trump is a fascist, says his chief of staff, John Kelly

What bothers me the most about today's Republican Party isn't the conservatism -- my mother was a lifelong Republican with deeply held conservative values -- but the Party's dangerous submission to Donald Trump, thereby elevating a single man's personality over Republican principles. The Republican Party that my mother belonged to was fervently anti-communist and anti-totalitarian. It believed that the United States had an almost sacred duty to spread democracy across the world and resist authoritarianism. Yet here we are, in 2024, with whatever Trump spouts off becoming the de facto policy of the Republican Party. Trump admires the dictatorial leaders…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump National politics

New Yorker article: “Trump is a distinctively vile human being”

At this late date in the 2024 presidential campaign, what mystifies me the most about the election if how about half of this country's voters still support Trump despite his obvious vileness. In an article in the October 21, 2024 issue of The New Yorker, Adam Gopnik, a highly skilled writer and analyzer of current events, discusses the disease of Trumpism in "As Bad as All That: Donald Trump and the unmaking of America." (Online title: "How Alarmed Should We Be if Trump wins again?")Download How Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again? | The New Yorker The final…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

The New Yorker endorsement of Kamala Harris is a thing of beauty

I'd expect nothing less of The New Yorker, a magazine I've subscribed to for much of my life that is known for its great writing and (often lengthy) articles on important subjects, not to mention quality fiction and reviews of books, theatre, TV shows, and movies. The New Yorker's endorsement of Kamala Harris for president in the October 7 issue was five pages long, much more extensive than the typical newspaper endorsement -- assuming your town still has a daily newspaper (mine does) which makes endorsements (mine doesn't, nor does it even have an opinion section anymore).Download The New Yorker…
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Posted in2024 election National politics

Walz-Vance debate was too boring and disappointing for this Democrat

As an avid Democrat, I was energized after Kamala Harris' debate with Donald Trump. Harris clearly won, and she made some great criticisms of Trump that sent chills up my progressive spine. Last night's VP debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance felt much different. At first I thought it was boring in a good way. However, as the debate neared its conclusion I felt that Walz was being overly Minnesota nice. Plus, he didn't seem comfortable on stage, while Vance appeared to be enjoying himself, which bothered me. The only real zinger that the Democrats I follow on Twitter…
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Posted in2024 election Joe Biden National politics

Biden wanted to cling to power, which would have been a disaster. Pelosi saved us.

Thanks to an article in the September 2 issue of The New Yorker, "Life of the Party: The Democrats seem rejuvenated by their new candidate. Why was it so hard to get one?," I learned about how close the Democratic Party came to being stuck with Biden after his disastrous debate, because he and his staff were so adamant about him staying in the presidential race. Below are excerpts from the article by Andrew Marantz that show the extent to which Biden was dangerously out of touch with reality until Nancy Pelosi and a few other leading Democrats put enough…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Harris has much better chance than Biden of beating Trump, says Nate Silver

Today Nate Silver, who ran the acclaimed 538 web site back when it was part of the New York Times, turned on his proprietary election prediction model (Silver maintained the rights to it after he became an independent analyst) following a hold when Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Now Silver considers that there's sufficient polling data for him to get the model up and running again with Harris as the Democratic candidate. Here's a couple of key figures from his Silver Bulletin, which I pay $10 a month for a subscription that gets more detail than his free offering.…
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Posted inInternational issues National politics

Netanyahu lied shamelessly in his address to Congress today

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's hugely unpopular prime minister, is that country's Donald Trump in this regard: Netanyahu lies shamelessly, seeks to cling to power to avoid being held to account for crimes he's committed, and avoids taking responsibility for his failures. Today Netanyahu used an address to Congress, which was boycotted by a large proportion of Democrats in the House and Senate, to continue spreading falsehoods about how Israel has been conducting the war against Hamas under his failed leadership.  I watched most of the speech, then couldn't stand all the B.S. that was flowing freely from Netanyahu's mouth, and fast-forwarded…
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Posted in2024 election Joe Biden Kamala Harris

I’m a happy Democrat again, thanks to Harris replacing Biden

What a difference a day makes when it comes to presidential politics. I woke up on Sunday, yesterday, feeling fine about my personal life and crappy about the prospect of Biden refusing to withdraw from the presidential contest, thereby likely guaranteeing a Trump victory this November. Then, later in the morning, I checked my phone and saw that Biden had withdrawn. At first I couldn't believe it. Maybe it was a sick joke? But a bit more scrolling on X revealed that yes, it was true. I raced to find my wife and tell her the good news. We both…
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Posted in2024 election Joe Biden National politics

BIden will destroy the Democratic Party if he doesn’t withdraw

Every day President Biden dithers around, now with Covid clouding his already-suspect thinking, trying to decide whether he should withdraw from the presidential race, he sets the stage for a catastrophic destruction of the Democratic Party if he fails to do the right thing and turn the nomination over to Kamala Harris. I say this as a (formerly) proud Democrat who always backed my party's candidate for president with enthusiasm. Now I rejoice in replying "stop" to every text message asking me to donate to Biden's campaign. I have no interest in helping his candidacy in any other way, either,…
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Posted in2024 election Joe Biden National politics

Why I’m a depressed Democrat (it’s all Biden’s fault)

What a difference a debate makes. Prior to June 27, 2024 I was an optimistic Democrat, looking forward to watching President Biden kick Trump's lying ass face-to-face.  After the debate, along with many millions of other members of my party, I was deeply disturbed by the inescapable reality that Biden not only didn't do any ass-kicking, he appeared befuddled during much of the debate and at times couldn't express a coherent thought.  Some three weeks later, my mood hasn't improved. If anything, I'm even more depressed now. Politically, not clinically, thankfully. (I've experienced actual depression; it's way beyond what I'm…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump National politics

It’s good Trump wasn’t killed. Now let’s defeat the S.O.B.

Let's not learn the wrong lesson from yesterday's attempt to assassinate Donald Trump. The biggest problem facing our country isn't toxic political discourse. It is Donald Trump. To believe otherwise is to deny some evident facts. That's why I disagree with the basic premise of Biden's speech to the nation today.  President Joe Biden used a rare Oval Office address on Sunday to condemn political violence and plead with Americans to turn down the temperature in the increasingly toxic political system after the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. ...Speaking from the Resolute Desk, Biden decried that the political…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Joe Biden

With the presidential debate looming tomorrow, the race currently is a toss-up

Suddenly the 2024 presidential race is seeming real. Well, make that much more real, because I've been fretting about the race for a long time.  But tomorrow's debate between Biden and Trump marks the genuine kickoff of the campaign to lead our country. Until now, there just have been skirmishes between the major party candidates. The debate will be an all-out war.  Being a Democrat, I worry a lot.  Will Biden stumble and fall on his way to the podium? Will Biden make some faux pas that will lead undecided voters to decide that he's senile? Will Trump summon up…
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Posted inNational politics

This was the strangest part of Supreme Court hearing on abortion drug

Sometimes I think I should have become a lawyer. Not all that often, thankfully, given that I have no regrets about the educational and career paths that I was led down. But I find legal arguments fascinating. Aside from scientific arguments, they're one of the best ways we humans have of getting closer to the truth. Not perfect, for sure. Just way better than arguing with each other in an unfettered fashion. Yesterday morning, I saw that the Washington Post app on my iPhone was featuring audio of the arguments being made before the Supreme Court about whether the abortion…
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Posted in2020 election Donald Trump National politics

Ronna McDaniel shows what’s wrong with the Republican Party

To clarify the title of this blog post, I want to be clear that currently there are lots of things wrong with the Republican Party. For example, the failure to acknowledge the reality that humans are causing global warming and we've got to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible to prevent civilization as we know it from being tossed into the garbage can of history. But there's a common denominator in many, if not most, of the flaws afflicting today's GOP: Donald Trump. Trump, who sows discord and destruction with every step he takes, like a malevolent Johnny…
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Posted inInternational issues Joe Biden National politics

Israel is killing lots of innocent people in Gaza. Biden is letting this happen.

I'm fed up. I'm angry. I'm outraged. More than 30,000 people have been killed in Gaza since October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel. The real number is almost certainly higher, since thousands are buried under rubble. Note that I said "people." That's who they are, people just like you and me. Yes, they're mostly Palestinians. Yes, many are Hamas fighters. But 70% of the dead people in Gaza are estimated to be women and children. How could this be? Because Israel has been bombing Gaza relentlessly with little concern for deaths of innocent people. It's Old Testament warfare. Hamas killed…
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Posted inNational politics Religiosity

Christian fundamentalism behind wacko Alabama court decision on IVF

In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a popular way for women to have a child who have trouble conceiving in the usual fashion. A CNN story says that about 2% of births in this country are from IVF. It works this way: In vitro fertilization, or IVF, is when an egg is removed from a woman’s body and combined with sperm inside a laboratory before being implanted, said Dr. Eve Feinberg, associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. To accomplish that, patients undergo eight to 10 days of fertility injections with hormones that help their…
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