Election for Salem mayor and city council turned out well for progressives, but not perfectly

The races for Salem mayor and city council are nominally nonpartisan, but in reality almost always there are conservative and progressive slates for these offices. So given the extent to which even local politics has become nationalized, every two years control of the city council hinges on whether the election winners tilt more toward the right or left of the political spectrum.

Since Oregon’s vote by mail allows for ballots to be counted if they are postmarked on or before election day, May 19, there’s an unknown number of ballots remaining to be counted. What I’ve shared below are screenshots of the results as of the 8:45 pm update for May 20 by the Secretary of State’s Election Office. I’ll briefly comment on each of the five races, noting how much the vote tally has changed since yesterday at about this time.

In the race for mayor, Vanessa Nordyke is leading incumbent Julie Hoy 56-44, the same percentage as last night. It’s highly unlikely, virtually impossible, that Hoy could pull out a victory via late-arriving ballots. So this is a pickup for progressives — who currently have a 6-3 majority on the city council, which is made up of eight councilors elected by ward and the mayor, who is elected citywide.

A replacement for Councilor Nordyke will have to be chosen by the city council. But since progressives control the council, it’s almost a sure bet that her replacement will be a progressive.

In Ward 2, incumbent Linda Nishioka has a commanding 64-35 lead over Manny Martinez. Those percentages are unchanged from last night. This is a hold for progressives.

In Ward 4, David Inbody has a 54-45 lead over incumbent Deanna Gwyn, essentially unchanged from last night. So this is a likely pickup for progressives.

In Ward 6, Betsy Vega has a 52-48 lead over incumbent Mai Vang. That’s unchanged from last night. If Vega holds on to her lead, this will be a pickup for conservatives. Last night Vega had a 53 vote lead; tonight her lead is 79 votes.

In Ward 8, incumbent Micki Varney has a narrow 36 vote lead over Chris Cummings, with them tied percentage-wise at 50-50. Last night Varney had a 51-49 lead, ahead by 97 votes. So this race will be “too close to call” until all the votes are counted.

Based on who is leading each race at the moment, progressives would end up with a one seat pickup on the city council, giving them a 7-2 majority. But if Varney were to lose to Cummings, the election would leave the current 6-3 progressive majority unchanged.

However, progressives would view that as a win, since electing Nordyke as mayor puts a progressive in charge of the most important and visible seat on the city council — notwithstanding the fact that Salem has a strong City Manager/weak Mayor form of city government.