Posted inChris Hoy City Council

Thanks to Mayor Hoy and three others who are leaving the Salem City Council

Tonight is the last Salem City Council meeting for the year. So this is a goodbye of sorts for four members of the council who won't be returning after their terms end on December 31, either because they lost a re-election bid or chose not to run again. Mayor Chris Hoy (lost reelection bid) Ward 1 Councilor Virginia Stapleton (chose not to run again)Ward 3 Councilor Trevor Phillips (chose not to run again) Ward 5 Councilor Jose Gonzalez (chose not to run again) I've adapted a "thanks for running" blog post from 2016 and 2020 for this occasion, because it…
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Posted inDonald Trump International issues

South Korea’s brief stint of martial law is a warning of what Trump might do

South Korea, like the United States, is a democracy. But that didn't stop President Yoon Suk Yeol from declaring martial law today, reversing his order a few hours later following massive outrage and demonstrations from South Korea's citizens and a unanimous vote from parliament rescinding the order. But for a while, troops tried to prevent members of parliament from entering their building, since Yoon's order declared political gatherings unlawful. For a while, things were really ugly in South Korea. Yoon's martial law announcement sounded like a dream come true for Donald Trump. If the decree had been put into effect,…
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Posted inDonald Trump Joe Biden

Biden pardons his son, Hunter. Good for him. Trump’s pardons were way worse.

When I saw this afternoon that President Biden had pardoned Hunter, his son, my immediate reaction was "Great news! Hunter was given a raw deal by the special prosecutor who investigated him." It seems clear that if Hunter didn't have the last name of Biden, he never would have faced such serious charges for merely stating on a federal gun purchase form that he wasn't an addict or user of illegal drugs. Hunter has said that when he filled out the form, he wasn't a user and didn't consider himself an addict. I'm pretty sure that lots of people in…
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Posted in2024 election National politics

Trump voters feel much better about economy now, though nothing has changed

If there ever was any doubt that the opinion of voters on important factual issues facing our country is heavily influenced by their political leaning, a pair of Politico/Morning Consult polls released today has put that doubt to rest. The title of the Politico story tells the tale: "Trump voters feel very differently about things now that he's won, our new poll shows." Remember how the sorry state of the economy was cited as a major factor in Trump's victory and Harris's defeat? Well, three weeks have passed since the election. The economy is in virtually the exact same state…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump

Timothy Snyder describes Trump’s fascism in chilling accuracy

American voters just chose a fascist to be president. This isn't political opinion. It is a political fact. The only question that remains unanswered is how much of a fascist Trump will be. The best we can hope for is fascist-lite. The worst is both more likely and beyond comprehension, because the United States has never been led by a fascist. Timothy Snyder is a distinguished Professor of History at Yale University who has studied fascism and authoritarianism in great depth. I've read his On Tyranny book and liked it a lot, though the message wasn't cheery.  In the November…
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Posted in2024 election City Club Donald Trump

Political scientist explains why Trump won at City Club talk

After a national election, I look forward to Ed Dover explaining the results at a Salem City Club presentation. Dover is a retired political science professor at Western Oregon University. Dover's talk last Friday was his 13th City Club appearance. Dover began by saying that asking the right questions is key to understanding election results. Adapting the opening song from Hamilton, he said, how could a liar, conman, narcissist, sex with a porn star candidate become president for the second time? Three factors: (1) Entrenched partisanship, (2) Retrospective voting, (3) Democratic constituencies.  Entrenched partisanship. Other countries have more variation in…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Harris didn’t lose by a landslide. She lost by a trickle of electoral sand.

I never expect Trump to speak the truth. When he does, perhaps by accident, it's a shock. But I haven't been at all shocked to hear Trump spout a lie: that he defeated Harris in a landslide victory that gives him a powerful mandate from the American people to do whatever he damn well wants, no matter how odious, unlawful, or unconstitutional. Here's a screenshot by someone I follow on Blue Sky and X (I'm weaning myself from X after Elon Musk became a shameless promoter of MAGA falsehoods) which shows a graphic that was on Chris Hayes' MSNBC show…
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Posted inDonald Trump

Trump’s authoritarianism is being clearly demonstrated already

Well, that didn't take long. Just ten days have passed since Trump was elected president, and he's wasting no time proving that those of us who said he'd be a dictator on Day 1 are being proven correct.  Even before Day 1, obviously, since Trump won't take office until January 20, 2025. But his current nominees for top jobs in his administration are showing that if there's one thing we can be sure of in Trump's second stint as president, it's that he'll be our most authoritarian president ever, by far. Before I talk about what horribly bad nominees he's…
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Posted inChris Hoy City Council Julie Hoy

Mayor-elect Julie Hoy faces censure over City Council vote involving campaign donor

It's another battle of Hoy vs. Hoy. Chris Hoy, Salem's current mayor, lost the first battle with his unrelated namesake when he was soundly defeated by City Councilor Julie Hoy in the May primary election that decided the race because she got more than 50% of the votes, so a rematch in the November general election wasn't necessary. Julie Hoy and Chris Hoy Depending on your point of view, the second Hoy vs. Hoy battle either is a sour grapes attempt by Chris Hoy to get back at Julie Hoy for snatching the mayor position out of his hands, or…
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Posted in2024 election Oregon politics

I’m grateful Oregon is a bright side to 2024 election

I felt this way after the 2016 election, and I feeling it again now: I'm grateful that I live in Oregon, where the Trump red wave that soundly defeated Harris was more like a pink ripple. According to the Cook Political Report, currently Harris' margin of victory in our state is 13.4% (54.9% for Harris, 41.5% for Trump). That's 2.7% less than the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020. So Trump increased his vote share in Oregon, but only ten states had a lower increase in the Republican percentage of presidential votes. Meaning, Oregon fared quite well (from the…
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Posted in2024 election 2026 election Donald Trump

Fellow Trump opponents, here’s what gives me hope

Election day was really depressing for me. While I knew that the race between Harris and Trump was a toss-up, I expected that Harris would pull out a victory. Heck, maybe even a fairly easy one. At the least, I thought the election would come down to narrow margins in a few swing states. So when it became evident that Trump was the victor before I went to bed around midnight out here in Oregon, my sleep was fitful. I couldn't stop thinking about the disasters that await our country and the world with another four years of Trump in…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Win or (probably) lose, I’m thankful for how Kamala Harris campaigned

It's turning out to be a sad night. I started watching the election returns on MSNBC around 5 pm with a lot of optimism. After all, a couple of days ago I wrote a blog post called "Why I expect Harris will beat Trump fairly easily." For sure, that's not going to happen. I was wrong. At the moment the New York Times Live Presidential Forecast gives Trump more than a 95% chance of victory. Harris' only option is to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Currently Trump is leading by 3 points in Pennsylvania, 6 points in Michigan, and 4…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Why I expect Harris will beat Trump fairly easily

As I told a friend today, when I consider how I feel about the almost-upon-us presidential election, it's difficult for me to separate out my strong desire to see Harris win from factual indicators of how her campaign is going. Nonetheless, below are reasons for why I'm confident that the election is going to turn out surprisingly well for Harris. I say "surprisingly," because the general attitude among political pundits is that this is a very tight 50-50 toss-up election. Indeed, that's how the three prediction models that I follow basically are rating the electoral college race: Nate Silver's Silver…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Environment

Climate is best reason to vote for Harris, and nobody’s talking about it

There are many strange things about the current presidential campaign, including: how Harris suddenly became the Democratic nominee after Biden withdrew; how the Republican Party could happily get behind Trump, a convicted felon who lost the last election; how neither campaign is speaking much about the climate crisis, even though it is by far the most important long-term issue.  I've watched all of Harris' debates and major speeches. Her silence on global warming is deafening. So is Trump's, but that's to be expected. Based on his first term in office, and what he's saying now, if Trump is elected it's…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

My tips about preserving sanity in the runup to presidential election

It takes one to know one, goes the familiar saying. Applying that to the current political situation, I know  the stress lots of people are under right now, because I'm feeling really stressed myself.  Today I mentioned in my Tai Chi class that I was going to try to use the Tai Chi principle of relaxed softness on November 5, election day, because I'm going to need all the help I can get in staying calm as the votes are counted and announced. That led to an interesting mid-class discussion among the half dozen or so students in attendance. It…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Trump campaign is self-destructing. Great news for Harris.

Like lots of Democrats, I worry incessantly about how well the Harris campaign is doing. Even though the presidential race is essentially a toss-up, us Democrats fret that Harris isn't doing better, while Trump supporters look at the same toss-up and think, "We're going to win for sure." But today I'm feeling a lot more optimistic.  Right on schedule, with just over a week to go before the election, the Trump campaign is self-destructing in plain view of voters. The clearest sign of this is the disastrous Trump rally in Madison Square Garden Sunday night.  Trump and other speakers were…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

I ditched my Washington Post subscription after Bezos tanked a Harris endorsement

After Trump won the presidency in 2016, I subscribed to the digital versions of the New York Times and Washington Post. For about $15 a month each, I figured this was money well spent to support some of the best journalists in the country. You know, those who Trump calls "the enemy of the people." Or more recently, "the enemy within." (That category includes many others as well, including Democratic politicians and liberal activists.) For almost eight years I've enjoyed both newspapers. But today I went to the Subscriptions section of my iPhone settings and unsubscribed from the digital Washington…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

My prediction is that Kamala Harris will be a great president

Last night I watched the CNN town hall featuring Kamala Harris and a group of undecided Pennsylvania voters. No Donald Trump, because he was afraid of an invitation to debate Harris on CNN that she accepted, and when CNN offered Trump his own town hall, he chickened out of that also. So much for the fake-macho Republican presidential candidate that world leaders supposedly fear. Trump doesn't even have the courage to go head-to-head with Harris again, undoubtedly because she kicked his ass badly in their previous debate. Watching Harris answer questions from the undecided voters, occasionally side-stepping a pointed question…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump National politics

Trump is a fascist, says his chief of staff, John Kelly

What bothers me the most about today's Republican Party isn't the conservatism -- my mother was a lifelong Republican with deeply held conservative values -- but the Party's dangerous submission to Donald Trump, thereby elevating a single man's personality over Republican principles. The Republican Party that my mother belonged to was fervently anti-communist and anti-totalitarian. It believed that the United States had an almost sacred duty to spread democracy across the world and resist authoritarianism. Yet here we are, in 2024, with whatever Trump spouts off becoming the de facto policy of the Republican Party. Trump admires the dictatorial leaders…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump National politics

New Yorker article: “Trump is a distinctively vile human being”

At this late date in the 2024 presidential campaign, what mystifies me the most about the election if how about half of this country's voters still support Trump despite his obvious vileness. In an article in the October 21, 2024 issue of The New Yorker, Adam Gopnik, a highly skilled writer and analyzer of current events, discusses the disease of Trumpism in "As Bad as All That: Donald Trump and the unmaking of America." (Online title: "How Alarmed Should We Be if Trump wins again?")Download How Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again? | The New Yorker The final…
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