Once again, Nate Silver’s midterm election model is even better for Democrats

As of today, the midterm election is just two weeks away.

My mood vacillates between optimism, since Democrats are expected to do well, and anxiety, since if the Democrats come out on top on November 3, Trump may do a constitutionally crazy thing and declare the election is so beset with fraud (which would be a total lie), he’s declaring a national emergency and impounding ballots/voting machines.

One of the ways I deal with these conflicting emotions is by immersing myself in factual information about the election. That helps ground me in external reality, rather than the internal machinations of my mind.

So here’s another update on how Nate Silver’s election prediction model, which he calls FLIPR (Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings) looks upon the midterm contests. My previous posts about the model — I’m a subscriber to the Silver Bulletin — were on September 2 and September 22.

The outlook for Democrats continues to steadily improve. On September 2 Silver gave Democrats a 52.4% chance of taking back both the House and Senate; on September 22 the chance was 67.0%; now it is 76.3%. On September 2 there was a 31% chance of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate; on September 22 the chance was 23.1%; now it is 18.5%.

To get the chance of Democrats controlling the House, we simply add the two boxes on the left below: Democratic sweep and Democratic House/Republican Senate. This is 94.8% — not a certainty, but close to it.

Here in Oregon, it’s a near certainty that the incumbent Congressional Representatives (5 D and 1 R) will be re-elected, along with Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley. Democratic Governor Kotek has a 84.9% chance of defeating Republican Christine Drazan. Kotek has been sinking a bit, as she had a 94.5% chance on September 2 and a 87.9% chance on September 22. Hopefully she’ll win, as it would be depressing for me if Democrats have a great election night nationally, but Kotek was upset by a Republican.

Here’s some closely watched Senate races where I’ve shown that every race except Maine has tilted further in the Democratic direction. Under Previously the first number is September 2 and the second number is September 22.

Texas: Talarico (D) has a 71.6% chance of defeating Paxton (R) Previously 64.3% and 70.2%
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) has a 81.6% chance of defeating Rogers (R) Previously 68.3% and 80.0%
Maine: Jackson (D) has a 73.3% chance of defeating Collins (R) Previously 66.0% and 74.0%
Ohio: Brown (D) has a 72.9% chance of defeating Husted (R) Previously 56.0% and 70.4%
Iowa: Turek (D) has a 60.0% chance of defeating Hinson (R) Previously Hinson had a 55.4% chance of defeating Turek, and Turek had a 59.4% chance of defeating Hinson

The following chart shows the most competitive Senate races. Originally the 2026 Senate map was considered to be a disaster for Democrats, because Democrats had to defend a bunch of Senate seats while supposedly having little chance of picking up seats in red states.

But as you can see below, of the fifteen most competitive Senate races in the upcoming midterm election, only Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire currently have Democratic senators, while the other twelves states have Republican senators. The Democratic candidate is favored in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, and has at least a narrow lead in Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and North Carolina — all seven of which currently have Republican senators.

This shows how Democrats have been able to take the fight for control of Congress into red state territory, something that seemed extremely unlikely after Trump was elected president in 2024. Of course, now Trump’s popularity has tanked, largely due to his having failed to deliver on reducing the cost of living and keeping our country out of war,