Nate Silver’s midterm election model now looks even better for Democrats

I need some positive political news, being a Democrat anxious about the upcoming midterm election. And the polls have been providing it lately.

Which is one reason why Nate Silvers’ midterm election model looks even better for Democrats today, compared to September 2, when I first shared some forecasts that go out to Silver Bulletin subscribers (I’m one).

On September 2, about three weeks ago, Silver gave Democrats a 52.4% chance of taking back both the House and Senate. Now the chance is 67.0%. Before there was a 31% chance of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Now the chance is 23.1%.

Here in Oregon, the Silver forecast is almost exactly the same, with the exception of the Governor’s race. Kotek has dropped from a 94.5% chance of defeating Drazan to a 87.9% chance.

Senate: Merkley (D) has a 99.8% chance of defeating Smith (R).

House:
OR-1:  Bonamici (D) has a 100.0% chance of defeating Kahl (R)
OR-2:  Bentz (R) has a 99.8% chance of defeating Beck (D)
OR-3:  Dexter (D) has a 100.0% chance of defeating Ayles (R)
OR-4:  Hoyle (D) has a 99.7% chance of defeating DeSpain (R)
OR-5:  Bynum has a 99.5% chance of defeating Adair (R) and Lehman (I)
OR-6:  Salinas has a 99.8% chance of defeating Russ (R) and Faler (I)

Governor: Kotek (D) has a 87.9% chance of defeating Drazan (R)

Here’s some closely watched Senate races where I’ve shown that every race has tilted in the Democratic direction.

Texas: Talarico (D) has a 70.2% chance of defeating Paxton (R) Previously 64.3%
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) has a 80.0% chance of defeating Rogers (R) Previously 68.3%
Maine: Jackson (D) has a 74.0% chance of defeating Collins (R) Previously 66.0%
Ohio: Brown (D) has a 70.4% chance of defeating Husted (R) Previously 56.0%
Iowa: Turek (D) has a 59.4% chance of defeating Hinson (R) Previously Hinson had a 55.4% chance of defeating Turek