Posted in2026 election Oregon politics

Poll shows Oregon governor’s race is basically tied. But Kotek is still heavily favored.

Being an avid Democrat, this wasn't what I wanted to see in my X/Twitter feed soon after I woke up today. Taniel is a respected election analyst who I follow. It would indeed be a major flip if Republican Christine Drazan were to unseat incumbent Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon, a decidedly blue state where Democrats hold every statewide office and all but one of the Congressional and Senate seats. But when I clicked on the OPB link, there it was: Searching the OPB story for some good news about Kotek's chances, I found this. OPB’s poll suggests the governor’s…
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Posted inArtificial intelligence

Oregon data centers fight back with web site and TV ad

Maybe it's because my wife and I don't watch much regular TV, aside from sports and news, but last night was the first time I'd seen the Oregon Connects pro-data center 30 second ad on the KGW (Portland) 11 pm news. I say this because the Oregon Capital Chronicle had a story about Oregon Connects on July 28, 2026, which admittedly was just two months ago. Here's an excerpt from "Pro-data center industry group behind ad campaign in Oregon, six other states." Just days before the Oregon Legislature in March passed a one-year pause on a popular tax incentive program…
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Posted in2026 election

Nate Silver’s midterm election model now looks even better for Democrats

I need some positive political news, being a Democrat anxious about the upcoming midterm election. And the polls have been providing it lately. Which is one reason why Nate Silvers' midterm election model looks even better for Democrats today, compared to September 2, when I first shared some forecasts that go out to Silver Bulletin subscribers (I'm one). On September 2, about three weeks ago, Silver gave Democrats a 52.4% chance of taking back both the House and Senate. Now the chance is 67.0%. Before there was a 31% chance of a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Now the…
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Posted inDonald Trump National politics

Trump wants snipers on top of his Triumphal Arch. Chef José Andrés shows how this would look.

Today Trump, who seems to be auditioning for a post-presidential career as a satirical writer for The Onion, said that he wants the Triumphal Arch he seeks to build in Washington D.C. to have some special features. The New York Times describes them. President Trump said on Sunday his planned 250-foot triumphal arch in Washington would be built to host “large numbers of drones,” snipers and ammunition, as the administration appeared prepared to justify another construction project by citing national security. Mr. Trump said the arch would be “a top grade Military Complex/Triumphal Arch, to house, store, and have the…
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Posted in2026 election Oregon politics

In the race for Oregon governor, remember that Trump wants Republicans to pretend he’s on the ballot

A vote for Republican Christine Drazan to become Governor of Oregon is a vote for Donald Trump to lead our state. This is certain, because high-ranking Republican politicians have to be loyal to Trump, and Drazan is a high-ranking Republican politician. So when Trump said recently to Republican voters, "Pretend I'm on the ballot," all Oregonians should take that seriously. A vote for Drazan is a vote for Trump. Drazan knows this, because she is a loyal Republican. But she can't admit it, because she wants to be Governor of a blue state where Trump isn't popular. That's why Republican…
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Posted in2026 election Donald Trump

Supreme Court decision means vote-by-mail is safe from Trump’s executive order

It's always a pleasure when some crazy Trump idea is struck down by the courts. Doubly pleasurable when it is the Supreme Court telling Trump no. Which made today's decision by the court that the postal service can't go ahead with requiring states to comply with vote-by-mail restrictions so satisfying. The Supreme Court on Monday blocked a Trump administration plan to dramatically change how Americans vote by mail in the lead-up to the midterm elections, a major loss for President Trump, who has long claimed without evidence that fraud is rampant in mail voting. The ruling was a resounding win…
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Posted inArtificial intelligence Data centers

Kotek and Drazan now agree on one thing: a statewide data center moratorium

Political ambition creates strange bedfellows. Today the two main candidates for Oregon governor in November's election, Democrat incumbent Tina Kotek and Republican state senator Kristine Drazan, both expressed their support for a statewide moratorium on data centers -- even though they'd previously expressed reservations about this. Well, that's what happens when polling shows that most Oregonians are on board with a moratorium. A story in today's Oregonian by Mike Rogoway says: Gov. Tina Kotek and her Republican opponent, Sen. Christine Drazan, both called for statewide moratoriums on data centers Tuesday, converging on the same position within hours of each other…
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Posted in2026 election National politics

Nate Silver’s midterm election model looks good for Dems both nationally and in Oregon

It's September. Time to start taking seriously projections for how the November 3 midterm election will turn out. My favorite prognosticator is Nate Silver, who runs the Silver Bulletin that I subscribe to, political junkie that I am. Silver is analyzing every race for the House, Senate, and Governor, along with the probability of each party controlling the House and Senate. Naturally Silver's model will be frequently updated between now and November 3, so what I've shared below is just a snapshot as of September 2. This is a description of the basic methodology used by Silver's FLIPR model: Forecast…
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