Harris has much better chance than Biden of beating Trump, says Nate Silver

Today Nate Silver, who ran the acclaimed 538 web site back when it was part of the New York Times, turned on his proprietary election prediction model (Silver maintained the rights to it after he became an independent analyst) following a hold when Biden withdrew from the presidential race. Now Silver considers that there's sufficient polling data for him to get the model up and running again with Harris as the Democratic candidate. Here's a couple of key figures from his Silver Bulletin, which I pay $10 a month for a subscription that gets more detail than his free offering.…

I’m a happy Democrat again, thanks to Harris replacing Biden

What a difference a day makes when it comes to presidential politics. I woke up on Sunday, yesterday, feeling fine about my personal life and crappy about the prospect of Biden refusing to withdraw from the presidential contest, thereby likely guaranteeing a Trump victory this November. Then, later in the morning, I checked my phone and saw that Biden had withdrawn. At first I couldn't believe it. Maybe it was a sick joke? But a bit more scrolling on X revealed that yes, it was true. I raced to find my wife and tell her the good news. We both…