2020 election

Trump may never concede, but Biden has whipped his ass

Last Tuesday was tough for progressives like me. Sure, I knew that mail-in ballots, largely from Democrats, were going to take a while to count, and in-person voting on election day would be dominated by Republicans. But knowing is one thing. Emotions are a whole other thing. I worried that somehow Trump would pull out another close victory like he did in 2016. Wednesday I felt better as Trump's lead in battleground states began to shrink. Thursday, even better. And today, Friday, I'm feeling damn fine! Now starts the fun part -- basking in the warm glow of Biden's almost…

Hines Brian November 6, 20201

Why I’m feeling post-election progressive joy

Tuesday's election could have been better, but it also could have been a whole lot worse from my progressive point of view. So I'm feeling fine right now, for these reasons. Biden appears to have defeated Trump. This is the biggest contributor to my positive mood, since another four years of Trump would have thrown me into a serious depression. Last night I was anxious, but as I checked election results throughout today, I started feeling better and better. At the moment it looks like Biden has a good chance of winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Coupled with the…

Hines Brian November 4, 2020No Comments

On election eve, thank you, local candidates

I've dusted off a blog post from May 2016. Changed the election day to what it is in 2020, November 3. Made it fit with a general election, rather than a primary election. Otherwise, left it much the same, because what I said back then on election day eve is what I also want to say today, with the election tomorrow. Thank you, candidates. I offer a heartfelt Namas'cray to all of the local people running in races that will be decided in tomorrow's 2020 general election. Thank you for being crazy enough to put in so much time, effort,…

Hines Brian November 2, 2020No Comments

Trump is out to steal the election, but he will fail

Next week, I hope and expect, Donald Trump will become a one-term president. Given how outrageously authoritarian Trump has been since he was inaugurated in January 2017, it's fitting -- though disturbing -- that currently he is trying to steal the election in a way that might work if he was the strongman of, say, Russia, but will fail big-time in our still democratic United States. Trump's scheme is described in an Axios piece today, "Trump's plan to declare premature victory." President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to…

Hines Brian November 1, 20202

My not-so-surprising presidential election prediction

With six days to go, it seems like the right time for me to make a presidential election prediction. Close enough to feel confident in the prediction, not so close as to be accused of waiting until the last moment when the pre-election cards have all been dealt face up. But I'm going farther, into a prediction of not only what will happen, but how the post-election period will go -- with a bang or a whimper? As a progressive, I understand why many in my political tribe are agonizing over all sorts of dire election possibilities. Some of this…

Hines Brian October 28, 20203

Trump lost tonight’s debate because he is Trump

The real winner of tonight's Trump-Biden debate is everyone who's glad there's no more debates. Which definitely includes me. Sure, I enjoy debates. But I'm ready for the election. This debate marks the beginning of the home stretch toward November 3. I'm eager for that day to come, especially if, as I both suspect and hope, Biden defeats Trump. Nothing I saw tonight changes my opinion about Biden being the clear favorite to become the next president. Currently FiveThirtyEight places the odds of this happening at 87%. It's hard to see how Trump's non-disastrous performance in this second debate, a…

Hines Brian October 22, 20203

Biden was warmly welcoming. Trump was coldly corrosive.

It wasn't a mistake for ABC and NBC to hold town halls with Joe Biden and Donald Trump on the same night, at the same time. I thought it would be, but thanks to my DVR, I was able to watch the hour with Trump, then the hour and a half with Biden. I appreciated the immediate stark contrast. Once again, Biden was the clear winner of the debate that wasn't, yet in a a way, was. The most obvious way Biden won was that he made no glaring mistakes, whereas Trump did. Supposedly Biden is the one who makes verbal…

Hines Brian October 15, 20203

Danielle Bethell getting big bucks from anti-abortion groups

Here's some fun facts about Danielle Bethell, a Republican who is running against Democrat Ashley Carson Cottingham for a seat on the Marion County Board of Commissioners. (1) Campaign finance reports show that to date, Bethell has gotten cash contributions of $7,500 from Oregon Right to Life and in-kind contributions of $57,263 from the Women's Leadership Coalition PAC -- which is a thinly-disguised arm of Oregon Right to Life. (2) So far, in 2020 Friends of Danielle Bethell, her campaign finance organization, has gotten $151,939 in contributions. So the $64,763 Bethell has gotten from the two anti-abortion groups make up…

Hines Brian October 11, 20201

2020 election Coronavirus Donald Trump

What Twitter is saying about Trump’s Covid illness

Here's 17 right-on tweets about Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization, including his attempt to do a Mussolini impression from a White House balcony after being released from the hospital. Sure, I could try to be as informed and witty as these people I follow on Twitter, but why try? Easier to simply share screenshots of their tweets.

Hines Brian October 6, 20201

Why Deb Patterson deserves your vote, not Denyc Boles

Last Friday the Salem City Club had a debate via Zoom between Deb Patterson and Denyc Boles, who are running for the Senate District 10 seat in the Oregon legislature. A libertarian candidate also took part in the debate, but he has a virtually zero chance of winning. I favored Deb Patterson, the Democrat, before the debate. After it, I favored Patterson even more, because I learned how bad Denyc Boles, the Republican, really is. I'll explain below. Boles came across as a right-wing politician who is trying to look more moderate than she really is. That's a typical campaign…

Hines Brian October 4, 2020No Comments

Reality is the big winner in Trump’s COVID-19 infection

I'm deeply political, so naturally I find opinions about how Trump coming down with COVID-19 will affect the November 3 election highly interesting. My bet is that this increases Biden's odds, but no bet is absolutely certain, including mine. When I first heard the news about this last night, my snap reaction was This will really help the fight against the coronavirus. I thought this because Trump has been the biggest super spreader of covid misinformation about masks, social distancing, hand washing, and other public health measures called for by scientific experts. He also has touted unproven remedies, none of…

Hines Brian October 2, 20202

Here’s my five takeaways from the ghastly Biden-Trump debate

There isn't anything good to say about how Donald Trump acted in the first 2020 presidential debate last night. So if you're a Trump fan who is in deep denial about what a horrible person your Dear Leader is, prepare to be faced with some uncomfortable truths about the debate. Here's five takeaways regarding the debate. I've backed up my opinions with views from knowledgeable political observers. (1) This was the worst presidential debate ever, because of Trump. Being a progressive who strongly favors Biden, my biggest pre-debate fear was that Trump would do the smart thing for him politically…

Hines Brian September 30, 20202

Sixteen deliciously snarky tweets about Trump’s tax returns

Today the New York Times released a blockbuster story about Trump's failure to pay federal taxes for 11 of the 18 years that the newspaper was able to examine his tax returns for. In 2017 his tax bill was just $750. (Related NYT stories are here, here, and here.) And Trump's businesses have lost a lot of money, demolishing his oft-repeated claim that he's an amazing businessman. It appears that his most successful "business" was appearing on the reality TV show, The Apprentice. Trump is personally responsible for $421 million in loans that are mostly coming due in four years. Naturally…

Hines Brian September 27, 20206

“Good news, bad news” story offers solace to those distressed about Trump

If there's one thing we can be sure about, it's that there's nothing to be sure about. The world is unpredictable, at least the world of human events. (Physics and chemistry, along with other areas of science, are wonderfully predictable.) Small happenings can lead to large changes. To offer a personal example, near the end of my senior year at San Jose State College back in 1970, I was unsure about what I was going to do with my next-to-worthless, job wise, B.A. in psychology. Applying for a post office job was running through my head. Then, as I was…

Hines Brian September 26, 20204

Upcoming Oregon election discussed by three expert political observers

Ah, the bliss... for a political junkie like me. At noon today I got to watch Jim Moore, Bill Lunch, and Jeff Mapes speak for an hour about the upcoming November election, focusing on Oregon. They were the kickoff for a series of Salem City Club programs on the election. The Salem Reporter sponsored today's program. Naturally the programs are going to be held via Zoom, not in-person. I like the usual meetings at the Willamette Heritage Center, but it was nice to not have to drive there. Sitting down at my laptop and logging in to Zoom suits me…

Hines Brian September 25, 2020No Comments

2020 election Larry Tokarski Political donations

Mountain West Investment Corporation gives $125,000 to conservative Salem PAC

Back in March I wrote about how the Chamber of Commerce appeared to be trying to hide a $25,000 contribution from Mountain West Investment Corporation, whose president is Larry Tokarski. (See Salem Chamber of Commerce apparently trying to hide $25,000 in PAC money.) Now Mountain West Investment Corporation is making campaign contributions in an indirect way by funneling five times as much money through a different political action committee. On August 26th, Mountain West Investment Corporation gave $125,000 to the Jobs PAC. Just two days prior, the Jobs PAC gave $2,500 to Republican Danielle Bethell’s campaign for Marion County Commissioner. On…

Hines Brian September 21, 20204

2020 election Donald Trump National politics

Let’s act in defense of Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat

Ruth Bader Ginsburg died yesterday. Today, and tomorrow, and for as long as it takes, us progressives need to do what Ginsburg would want -- act to defend the integrity of the Supreme Court seat that she held with great distinction since 1993. Action relieves anxiety. When I heard about Ginsburg's death I was deeply troubled. I knew that Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell would try to get her replacement confirmed by the Senate as soon as possible. Maybe before election day, November 3. Surely before Inauguration Day, January 20, 2021. Just because McConnell said in 2016 that Merrick Garland,…

Hines Brian September 19, 2020No Comments

I’ve got an important question for Trump supporters in Salem

In 2016, Donald Trump got 38% of the presidential vote in Salem, while Hillary Clinton got 49%. So when I go grocery shopping, as I did today, likely around a third of the people I see are Trump supporters. (I'm hoping his support has slipped a bit during the past four years.) Obviously there's a wide gulf between conservatives and progressives these days. Yet being a moderate sort of progressive, in no way do I view those who want another four years of Trump as crazy. Having been raised by a fiercely Republican mother, who never wavered on her conservative…

Hines Brian August 31, 20209