Poll shows Oregon governor’s race is basically tied. But Kotek is still heavily favored.

Being an avid Democrat, this wasn’t what I wanted to see in my X/Twitter feed soon after I woke up today. Taniel is a respected election analyst who I follow.

It would indeed be a major flip if Republican Christine Drazan were to unseat incumbent Governor Tina Kotek in Oregon, a decidedly blue state where Democrats hold every statewide office and all but one of the Congressional and Senate seats. But when I clicked on the OPB link, there it was:

Searching the OPB story for some good news about Kotek’s chances, I found this.

OPB’s poll suggests the governor’s race is growing tighter as Election Day nears. Polls conducted in late June and early September showed Drazan up by 4% and 2%, respectively. The OPB survey shows fewer undecided voters than past results and the Republican margin at just 1%,well within the poll’s margin of error.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 17-27. It used a mix of telephone interviews and text messages that directed Oregon voters to an online form.

Despite the fact that a Republican has not won the governor’s office since 1982, there’s precedent for the party having an edge at this stage in the race. In 2022, Drazan led most public polls through November, only to see her lead collapse in the final days.

I also felt better after checking out the current forecast of Kotek’s chances in the Silver Bulletin, which is the brainchild of election prognosticator Nate Silver (I’m a subscriber).

As of today, September 30, Silver gives Kotek a 88.8% chance of winning in the Deluxe forecast. That incorporates polls, fundamentals such as fundraising and incumbency, and expert race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. On September 22 Kotek had a 87.9% chance of defeating Drazan, and on September 2 Kotek had a 94.5% chance.

So Governor Kotek is still heavily favored to win on November 3, though by no means is this assured. Silver’s FLIPR model is called that because it is a Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings. That’s why recent polls have the governor race as a statistical tossup, while the Silver Bulletin continues to give Kotek a high chance of defeating Drazan.

This shows how polls and fundamentals diverge in the Oregon (OR) governor race.

The polls show Kotek with a very small 0.3% lead over Drazan. Again, basically tied. But the Simple fundamentals (national generic ballot plus Oregon’s partisan lean score) has a D +23.6% edge, which would point to a runaway victory for Kotek. The Fancy fundamentals include incumbency, fundraising, experience, scandals, and other candidate-specific factors. That drops Kotek’s edge to 11.6%.

In other words, Kotek isn’t a great candidate, having lots of negatives. Yet Oregon is a blue state and the political winds are favorable for Democrats nationally, so Kotek’s personal weaknesses probably will be outweighed by a positive climate for Democrats in Oregon and the United States as a whole.

That’s why the Silver Bulletin currently is predicting that Kotek will get 52.3% of the vote and Drazan 43.5%. Not a blowout, just a solid victory for Kotek. Hope this comes to pass, as I’d hate to see Drazan become Oregon’s governor in a midterm election that looks highly positive for Democrats nationally.