Ten reasons Trump’s Venezuela caper will go badly

I’m tempted to say that Trump just did the unthinkable. But when it comes to all things Trumpian, thinking usually is the farthest thing from the Donald’s mind. So for our Authoritarian-in-Chief, nothing is unthinkable, because everything is just whim, primal urges with no coherent thoughts.

I’m confident that attacking Venezuela so American special forces could abduct President Nicolas Maduro and his wife is going to turn out badly. The main reason I say this is simple: whatever Trump does almost always turns out badly. So the odds are strongly in my favor.

Trump’s tariffs have turned out badly. Trump’s immigration crackdown has turned out badly. Trump’s effort to end the war in Ukraine has turned out badly. Trump’s economic policies have turned out badly. Trump’s release of the Epstein files has turned out badly. Trump’s overall approval rating has turned out badly.

There’s no reason to believe anything other than what occurs next in Venezuela also will turn out badly.

I was able to watch some of Trump’s briefing and press conference today about what happened in Venezuela. It was surreal. I felt like I was watching a farcical movie where an elderly president who is losing his mental faculties decides to attack another country for no good reason, and brings out his incompetent loud-mouthed Secretary of Defense, plus his eager-to-please ass kissing Secretary of State in an attempt to explain why the heck it was necessary to attack another country that posed no real threat to the United States.

Unsurprisingly, that attempt failed horribly. As will Trump’s entire Venezuela caper. Here’s why I think this.

(1) The Trump administration is clueless about why it attacked Venezuela. Rubio said it was a law enforcement exercise aimed at arresting Maduro and his wife on a charge of drug trafficking. Trump said it was to secure oil fields that will be developed by American energy companies. No coherent goal means no coherent outcome.

(2) Trump claimed that the United States now will run Venezuela. How? This is a country of 30 million people. There are no American forces in the country. It would take tens of thousands of troops, at least, to have a chance of running Venezuela ourselves. Good luck with putting that many “boots on the ground.”

(3) Rubio falsely said that the Vice-President of Venezuela, who is now that country’s leader,  had agreed to work with the United States. Actually, the Vice-President spoke to her country today about how Maduro needed to be released, and how the United States unfairly attacked Venezuela, urging citizens to resist this imperialist aggression.

(4) For months the Trump administration has been claiming that the United States isn’t interested in regime change, only in stopping the flow of drugs into our country. Now it turns out that the real purpose of our military build-up in the Caribbean was indeed regime change. Again, no one in Trump’s orbit knows why they’re doing what they’re doing.

(5) Now that Maduro has been removed from office, seemingly the United States would be supporting the candidate who was elected president of Venezuela before Maduro cancelled that result and stayed in power. Nope, not happening. There was zero mention of democracy in the briefing today. Lots of mentions of oil fields that supposedly will be controlled by the United States.

(6) Supposedly, because American energy companies aren’t eager to return to a country that has a good chance of descending into chaos in the coming days, weeks, and months. Why should they invest billions in Venezuelan oil fields when the payoff is so uncertain, especially given historically low oil prices at the moment?

(7) Trump’s attempted takeover of Venezuela is music to the ears of the Russian and Chinese dictators. If Trump can attack Venezuela because he doesn’t like the leadership of our neighbor to the south, why isn’t  China entitled to its neighbor, Taiwan, or Russia to its neighbor, Ukraine? More wars will follow in Trump’s warsteps.

(8) The people of Venezuela would support the United States in returning democracy to their nation. But since Trump has made it clear that what he cares about is gaining control of Venezuela’s oil fields, not democracy, resistance to a United States occupation likely will be intense.

(9) Trump dismissed the Venezuelan woman who won the Nobel Peace Prize this year for her resistance to the Maduro regime as not being able to earn the respect of her country’s people. That’s both an insult to the woman, who has risked so much, and to the citizens of Venezuela.

(10) The Trump administration is saying that this is just the beginning of U.S. efforts to overthrow leaders of other Latin American countries such as Cuba and Columbia. More wars neither is what Trump promised in his 2024 campaign, nor what the American people desire. Plus, Americans don’t want our military to be used for law enforcement purposes, either here in the United States or in other countries.

A story in The Atlantic is an excellent critique of Trump’s approach to Venezuela. “Trump’s Risky War in Venezuela” is well worth a read.