Posted in2024 election National politics

Trump voters feel much better about economy now, though nothing has changed

If there ever was any doubt that the opinion of voters on important factual issues facing our country is heavily influenced by their political leaning, a pair of Politico/Morning Consult polls released today has put that doubt to rest. The title of the Politico story tells the tale: "Trump voters feel very differently about things now that he's won, our new poll shows." Remember how the sorry state of the economy was cited as a major factor in Trump's victory and Harris's defeat? Well, three weeks have passed since the election. The economy is in virtually the exact same state…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump

Timothy Snyder describes Trump’s fascism in chilling accuracy

American voters just chose a fascist to be president. This isn't political opinion. It is a political fact. The only question that remains unanswered is how much of a fascist Trump will be. The best we can hope for is fascist-lite. The worst is both more likely and beyond comprehension, because the United States has never been led by a fascist. Timothy Snyder is a distinguished Professor of History at Yale University who has studied fascism and authoritarianism in great depth. I've read his On Tyranny book and liked it a lot, though the message wasn't cheery.  In the November…
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Posted in2024 election City Club Donald Trump

Political scientist explains why Trump won at City Club talk

After a national election, I look forward to Ed Dover explaining the results at a Salem City Club presentation. Dover is a retired political science professor at Western Oregon University. Dover's talk last Friday was his 13th City Club appearance. Dover began by saying that asking the right questions is key to understanding election results. Adapting the opening song from Hamilton, he said, how could a liar, conman, narcissist, sex with a porn star candidate become president for the second time? Three factors: (1) Entrenched partisanship, (2) Retrospective voting, (3) Democratic constituencies.  Entrenched partisanship. Other countries have more variation in…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Harris didn’t lose by a landslide. She lost by a trickle of electoral sand.

I never expect Trump to speak the truth. When he does, perhaps by accident, it's a shock. But I haven't been at all shocked to hear Trump spout a lie: that he defeated Harris in a landslide victory that gives him a powerful mandate from the American people to do whatever he damn well wants, no matter how odious, unlawful, or unconstitutional. Here's a screenshot by someone I follow on Blue Sky and X (I'm weaning myself from X after Elon Musk became a shameless promoter of MAGA falsehoods) which shows a graphic that was on Chris Hayes' MSNBC show…
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Posted inDonald Trump

Trump’s authoritarianism is being clearly demonstrated already

Well, that didn't take long. Just ten days have passed since Trump was elected president, and he's wasting no time proving that those of us who said he'd be a dictator on Day 1 are being proven correct.  Even before Day 1, obviously, since Trump won't take office until January 20, 2025. But his current nominees for top jobs in his administration are showing that if there's one thing we can be sure of in Trump's second stint as president, it's that he'll be our most authoritarian president ever, by far. Before I talk about what horribly bad nominees he's…
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Posted inChris Hoy City Council Julie Hoy

Mayor-elect Julie Hoy faces censure over City Council vote involving campaign donor

It's another battle of Hoy vs. Hoy. Chris Hoy, Salem's current mayor, lost the first battle with his unrelated namesake when he was soundly defeated by City Councilor Julie Hoy in the May primary election that decided the race because she got more than 50% of the votes, so a rematch in the November general election wasn't necessary. Julie Hoy and Chris Hoy Depending on your point of view, the second Hoy vs. Hoy battle either is a sour grapes attempt by Chris Hoy to get back at Julie Hoy for snatching the mayor position out of his hands, or…
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Posted in2024 election Oregon politics

I’m grateful Oregon is a bright side to 2024 election

I felt this way after the 2016 election, and I feeling it again now: I'm grateful that I live in Oregon, where the Trump red wave that soundly defeated Harris was more like a pink ripple. According to the Cook Political Report, currently Harris' margin of victory in our state is 13.4% (54.9% for Harris, 41.5% for Trump). That's 2.7% less than the margin Biden beat Trump by in 2020. So Trump increased his vote share in Oregon, but only ten states had a lower increase in the Republican percentage of presidential votes. Meaning, Oregon fared quite well (from the…
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Posted in2024 election 2026 election Donald Trump

Fellow Trump opponents, here’s what gives me hope

Election day was really depressing for me. While I knew that the race between Harris and Trump was a toss-up, I expected that Harris would pull out a victory. Heck, maybe even a fairly easy one. At the least, I thought the election would come down to narrow margins in a few swing states. So when it became evident that Trump was the victor before I went to bed around midnight out here in Oregon, my sleep was fitful. I couldn't stop thinking about the disasters that await our country and the world with another four years of Trump in…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Win or (probably) lose, I’m thankful for how Kamala Harris campaigned

It's turning out to be a sad night. I started watching the election returns on MSNBC around 5 pm with a lot of optimism. After all, a couple of days ago I wrote a blog post called "Why I expect Harris will beat Trump fairly easily." For sure, that's not going to happen. I was wrong. At the moment the New York Times Live Presidential Forecast gives Trump more than a 95% chance of victory. Harris' only option is to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Currently Trump is leading by 3 points in Pennsylvania, 6 points in Michigan, and 4…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Kamala Harris

Why I expect Harris will beat Trump fairly easily

As I told a friend today, when I consider how I feel about the almost-upon-us presidential election, it's difficult for me to separate out my strong desire to see Harris win from factual indicators of how her campaign is going. Nonetheless, below are reasons for why I'm confident that the election is going to turn out surprisingly well for Harris. I say "surprisingly," because the general attitude among political pundits is that this is a very tight 50-50 toss-up election. Indeed, that's how the three prediction models that I follow basically are rating the electoral college race: Nate Silver's Silver…
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Posted in2024 election Donald Trump Environment

Climate is best reason to vote for Harris, and nobody’s talking about it

There are many strange things about the current presidential campaign, including: how Harris suddenly became the Democratic nominee after Biden withdrew; how the Republican Party could happily get behind Trump, a convicted felon who lost the last election; how neither campaign is speaking much about the climate crisis, even though it is by far the most important long-term issue.  I've watched all of Harris' debates and major speeches. Her silence on global warming is deafening. So is Trump's, but that's to be expected. Based on his first term in office, and what he's saying now, if Trump is elected it's…
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